If the decline of the hottest crude oil does not d

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Crude oil declines unabated, Shanghai oil is difficult to improve


Shanghai oil fell sharply again this week. Although it rebounded in the middle of the week, it was still mainly dragged down by crude oil, falling another 200 yuan, barely holding up at 4500 yuan

the weakening demand led to a strong short position atmosphere, the fund short position pattern intensified the decline, and the oil price has not stabilized

in terms of operation, the thinking of partial empty does not change, but pay attention to rebound at any time. Crude oil continued to test $110 this week. Shanghai oil should continue to maintain the short position thinking, and pay attention to the support of 4500 yuan again in case of rebound. The range is 4500-5000 yuan





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I. market description

crude oil market: NYMEX crude oil futures still showed a downward trend this week, However, the rate and extent of decline have slowed significantly. Under the leading expectation of the slowdown of the U.S. economy and the weakening of crude oil demand, futures prices have entered a downward channel of continuous decline. The main crude oil contract in September this week has reached US $111.34 as low as 25% since the historical high, and the market is extremely weak. In the middle of the week, the crude oil inventory barely rebounded due to a sharp reduction, but then it was suppressed by the strong rise of the US dollar index. It finally closed at $113.77 this week, down $1.43 from the previous week. From the technical graph, after the 50% callback technical bit since the beginning of the year was completely broken, it is now close to $110 of 0.382 technical callback. From the long shadow of the weekly K-line to the Yin hammer K-line close, the 40 week moving average has received strong support, but the middle track that fell below the brin belt will directly run to the lower track. In addition, the MACD opening continues to expand, and the lengthening of the green column shows that the current callback is still not over. At present, we still need to pay close attention to the next support level, the 40 week moving average, or the 0.618 gold callback level of $110. Once the breakthrough is made, we will try the important threshold of $100

Shanghai Oil Market: this week, the trend of Shanghai oil basically followed the trend of crude oil and continued to callback, but the strength of the rebound and the range of decline were significantly stronger than crude oil. In terms of the main contract 810, after the sharp correction at the beginning of the week, it obviously received strong support at 4500 yuan. With the rebound of crude oil, it rose strongly. It once rushed above the 10 day moving average, and it was obvious that it was willing to end the correction. However, the situation of crude oil was extremely weak, which was difficult to form a strong support for Shanghai oil. It fell again below the 5-day moving average on Friday to close at 4580 yuan. However, it is worth noting that in 811, which is about to be converted into the main contract of Shanghai oil company, there was a rare limit on Friday, which reflects the pattern of near strong and far weak. Therefore, we should maintain the short thinking for forward contracts. From the perspective of technical graphics, the jump of weekly K-line closed with the negative line of long Shangying, which was only supported by the 40 week moving average and 50% technical callback, that is, 4500 yuan. However, the high dead cross of weekly MACD, the lower fork of the 5-week moving average, the 10 week moving average and the breaking of the brin channel medium track all indicate that the future price will continue to adjust downward. Therefore, we still maintain the partial empty thinking

second, fundamental analysis

demand is weakening, and the futures price is difficult to improve:

the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned on the 15th that the global economic slowdown will lead to further weakness in oil demand growth, highlighting the possibility of building a large number of crude oil inventories. OPEC said that in view of the current OPEC production exceeding the expected demand, it is possible to build a large number of crude oil inventories. The current structure of crude oil futures market shows that the current supply fully exceeds the demand, which will further build inventory. OPEC reiterated that it is expected that from now to 2009, the demand for OPEC crude oil will decrease by 700000 barrels/day, and maintain a compound growth rate of about 40% to the lowest since 2002. The oil demand of the United States was heavily impacted by the economic slowdown and high oil prices, and its transportation and industrial fuel demand decreased the most. Even the strong oil demand growth in China, the Middle East and Asia could not offset the sharp reduction in oil demand of the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) in the second quarter. After the crude oil price fell sharply from mid July to August, the OPEC report stressed that the weakness of the oil market fundamentals has begun to be reflected in the price. According to the report, the mild reaction of the market to the recent supply disruption in the Caucasus indicates the recent changes in market sentiment

the dollar is unstoppable, and the futures price is under pressure again

although the U.S. economy is still in the doldrums, the performance of countries such as the euro zone is even worse, and the euro will decline against the U.S. dollar (1.4729,0.0052,0.35%, right). The main data released recently showed that the economic growth of Germany, France and Italy fell, and the GDP of the euro zone fell by 0.2% quarter on quarter in the second quarter, the first contraction since the compilation of the data began in 1995. The dollar has come out of the bottom and is on the upward path. The commodity market is expected to remain under pressure from the US dollar. In the month since July 15, the dollar index rose from 71.31 points to 77.25 points, an increase of 8.33%. At the same time, the CRB index fell from 615 points to 506.82 points, down 17.6%. The overwhelming strong rise of the US dollar seems to be pushing the commodity market further into the abyss of a bear market. In its research report, Goldman Sachs Group changed its bearish position on the US dollar over the past 10 years and believed that the US dollar had hit the bottom as global growth slowed, oil prices fell and the US trade balance improved. JE, a strategic analyst at Goldman Sachs, points out that the most important driving force is obviously the sharp slowdown in growth outside the United States, especially in the euro zone, Britain and Australia. The recent sharp changes in financial market expectations for interest rates in the euro zone show that the US dollar will appreciate even if the Federal Reserve holds its ground

crude oil inventories have been stimulated by positive results and have not stopped falling

according to data released by the U.S. Department of energy on the 13th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, gasoline and other refined oil inventories fell last week. Data showed that in the week ended August 8, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States fell by 400000 barrels to 296.5 million barrels compared with the previous week, while analysts originally expected an increase of 500000 barrels. Last week, gasoline inventories in the United States plummeted by 6.4 million barrels to 202.8 million barrels, nearly three times the decline analysts had expected. However, analysts believe that the decline in gasoline inventories may be caused by the temporary closure of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico before tropical storm Edward struck. Other refined oil depots, including diesel and heating oil, recorded 131.6 million barrels, down 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. In addition, the equipment operating rate of U.S. refineries was 85.9% last week, down from 87% the previous week, the lowest level since early May. U.S. crude oil inventories include commercial inventories and strategic oil reserves. At present, the US strategic oil reserve is 707million barrels

the pattern of short positions of crude oil funds has increased

according to the weekly CFTC fund position report, the fund short position pattern has been basically established and has an accelerating trend. At present, the technology of headroom head is also one of the key technologies in the material genome project, and one inch has been close to 10000 hands. The fund has completely changed the idea of going long in the early stage. The sharp decline in prices shows that short sellers have completely gained the upper hand. Therefore, at the moment when short selling of funds has become dominant, the future market will continue to suppress the price of crude oil futures

Singapore Fuel Oil Market:

recently, rats in Singapore fuel oil market often go through wall holes and inlet holes that damage cables, and transactions continue to be depressed, with Singapore's fuel oil inventory falling to an 11 week low. As of the week ended yesterday, Singapore's residual oil inventory fell by 1.309 million barrels to 18.255 million barrels. In the Huangpu spot market, the quotation of shippers is generally stable, and they are cautious about the future market. Whampoa spot window trading, Singapore imports 180CST, the buying quotation is stable, the highest buying quotation/lowest selling quotation are 5000/5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the bid ask difference remains at 200 yuan/ton

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