The hottest polymerization MDI market is in a cold

The aggregate MDI market is in a cold winter

recently, the domestic aggregate MDI market has continued to decline, approaching the 10000 yuan mark. At present, the price runs to 12400-12600 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is a world away from the peak of 45000 yuan last year

insiders believe that thermoplastic plastics (such as PVC) are used. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, imported products are impacted, and the bottom of the polymerization MDI market has not been completed, so there is basically no hope of recovery

import supply shock

according to Zhu Ming, project director of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd., this year's "golden nine silver ten" aggregate MDI market is bleak. By the end of October, the negotiated ex warehouse price of Shanghai source of goods in East China was 12900 yuan. In addition, it was beneficial to the development and design of new products - it was tantamount to endangering public safety by dangerous methods - 13000 yuan. The negotiated ex warehouse price of Wanhua pm200 was 13200-13300 yuan, down 800-1500 yuan from the end of September. Since November, the aggregate MDI market still shows no signs of stabilizing. In particular, Shanghai Kosi reduced the factory price by 600 yuan to 13000 yuan, which increased the bearish atmosphere in the market. The confidence of the factory is insufficient, and the merchants on the floor are generally bearish in the aftermarket. The quotation is appropriately lowered, and the market has been in a short state

in addition, the negotiated price of imported goods has frequently declined, which also has an impact on the domestic market

"last week, Korea's Kumho Mitsui polymerization MDI quoted about $1400 to China, down $30 from the previous week. The arbitrage window opened, and a large number of imported goods poured in, which also intensified market competition." Zhu Ming analyzed

raw material support weakened

from the perspective of raw aniline, under the background of the sharp decline in international crude oil prices, the market price of aniline has fallen sharply, which is difficult to bring cost support to MDI

"recently, Wanhua aniline plant expanded its production, and the expansion of downstream supporting MDI plant did not keep up in time. The manufacturer changed from externally sourced aniline to externally released aniline, and the market supply increased significantly. In addition, Lanzhou Petrochemical plant was restarted; the shipment of Shandong Jinling 100000 t/a plant was stable after the resumption of construction, and a large number of resources impacted the East China market. In order to reduce inventory, some sellers made a substantial profit, and the negotiated price fell to 7000 yuan." Zhao Dong, President of Shandong Jinling group, said

according to the analysis of insiders, at present, the hydrogenation of benzene, the raw material of aniline, operates strongly, which has a certain support for the price of aniline, but the market is more bad than good, and the confidence is insufficient

demand continues to decline

from the downstream, the demand for exterior walls, pipe insulation and other aspects continues to shrink, which is difficult to drive the aggregate MDI market

Li Hong, manager of the marketing department of Shandong Zhonghai Chemical Group Co., Ltd., said that after October, the exterior wall and pipe insulation industry projects entered the final stage, especially in November. With the arrival of the heating season, the demand of these two industries basically ended

from the perspective of the refrigerator industry, the overall macro-economy is not optimistic. In addition, the stability of the whole machine is directly related to the stiffness of the system. Before the impact of Sino US trade friction, the refrigerator industry as a whole is difficult to be optimistic; Other industries are also tepid, and it is difficult to have bright spots. The overall market demand is relatively low

specifically, the downstream of the hard bubble market just needs an appropriate amount of replenishment, and the trading volume has increased compared with last week. However, in the context of the off-season, the overall demand continues to be weak, and there is still the expectation of pressure downward exploration; The overall operating rate of the domestic slurry market is only maintained at about 50%, and it is difficult to purchase large quantities of raw materials

according to the analysis, the current contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent, coupled with the weakening cost, the market is not likely to recover. However, if the maintenance of later production enterprises can be carried out, the market price may be better